The Story Behind The Numbers

Pumpkins, Portfolios and Planning Ahead

Written by Jane M. Tereba | Oct 21, 2025 6:20:48 PM

Why October is the ideal time to assess your business, investments, and financial strategy

October is a season of harvest and preparation. Farmers gather what they planted months ago. Families prepare their homes for winter. For business owners and investors, fall offers a natural pause—a chance to take stock of what has grown, evaluate the current environment, and plan thoughtfully for what lies ahead.

This article explores four key priorities to review before year-end:

  1. Treat your business like an investment
  2. Gain a complete understanding of your investment portfolio
  3. Consider the economic and tax landscape as 2026 approaches
  4. Put financial planning and forecasting at the center of decision-making

1. Treat Your Business Like an Investment

For many entrepreneurs, the business is their largest single asset and a primary engine of wealth creation. Yet it is often managed day-to-day as a source of income rather than with the same discipline applied to traditional investments.

Evaluate Your Company as You Would Any Asset

Approach your company with an investor’s mindset:

  • Measure performance: Track key financial indicators—cash flow, margins, return on capital, customer acquisition costs—regularly and objectively.

  • Assess growth potential: Identify markets or product lines with the highest prospects for profitable expansion.

  • Review risk exposures: Evaluate reliance on a small number of customers, supply-chain dependencies, or regulatory changes.

Allocate Resources for Long-Term Value

Just as a well-balanced portfolio requires thoughtful allocation, so does a business. Direct capital and human resources toward initiatives with sustainable return. Consider pruning underperforming products or services to strengthen the core.

Prepare for Future Transitions

Whether succession, sale, or partial liquidity is in view, early planning allows you to optimize valuation, tax treatment, and management continuity. Maintaining accurate records and updating a “business owner’s balance sheet” creates a clearer picture of enterprise value and how it integrates into your personal net worth.

2. Understand Your Entire Investment Portfolio

A diversified investment portfolio—covering equities, fixed income, real estate, private holdings, and retirement plans—can be as varied as a field of pumpkins. Seeing how each piece fits into the whole is essential to balancing risk and opportunity.

Consolidate and Clarify

Gather and review all account statements, including business equity and less-liquid holdings. Today’s secure aggregation tools make it easier to maintain a single, comprehensive view.

Detect Overlaps and Gaps

Seemingly different mutual funds or ETFs may hold the same underlying securities, creating unintended concentration. Likewise, certain sectors or geographies may be underrepresented. An informed reallocation helps maintain alignment with long-term goals.

Rebalance with Purpose

Market movements change portfolio weights. Rebalancing—selling assets that have appreciated and adding to those that have lagged—maintains the intended risk profile and can improve long-term outcomes.

Integrate Business Ownership

If a significant portion of your wealth is in your company, that exposure should inform the level of risk you assume elsewhere. For example, a cyclical business may call for a more conservative approach in personal investments.

3. Anticipate the 2026 Economic Landscape

Sound planning looks beyond the current season. Several well-signaled developments will shape the economic environment over the next two years.

Tax Law Changes

Key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are scheduled to sunset after 2025. Without legislative action, personal income tax rates will rise and estate tax exemptions will decrease in 2026. Businesses may also see changes to deductions and depreciation rules.

Practical considerations:

  • Evaluate whether accelerating income or realizing capital gains before the end of 2025 is advantageous.

  • Review estate plans and gifting strategies to take advantage of current exemptions.

  • Reassess business entity structures for tax efficiency.

Interest Rates and Inflation

Most economists expect inflation to moderate gradually, but borrowing costs may remain higher than the historically low rates of the past decade. This has implications for refinancing, expansion financing, and the relative attractiveness of fixed-income investments.

Growth Outlook

Consensus forecasts point to steady, moderate economic growth into 2026. Certain sectors—such as technology, energy transition, and health care—continue to present opportunities, but prudent assumptions about overall growth remain advisable.

4. Make Financial Planning and Forecasting a Core Discipline

Successful harvests are not the result of chance; they are planned. Financial forecasting brings the same discipline to personal and business finances.

Comprehensive Forecasting

Look beyond a one-year budget. A rolling three-to-five-year projection of cash flow, taxes, and capital needs offers a roadmap for decision-making and provides early warning of potential shortfalls or opportunities. 

Scenario Analysis

Stress-test your financial plan against market volatility, tax changes, and unexpected expenses. By exploring multiple outcomes, you can respond to change with confidence rather than urgency.

Professional Collaboration

Complex portfolios and evolving tax policy require specialized expertise. Engaging an experienced advisory team helps identify strategies, coordinate investments and taxes, and keep plans aligned with goals.

Moving from Reflection to Action

Autumn underscores a simple truth: every season’s harvest depends on prior preparation. Now is the moment to:

  • Evaluate your business with the rigor of an investment

  • Ensure your portfolio is complete, balanced, and aligned with your objectives

  • Anticipate the economic and tax shifts likely to shape 2026 and beyond

  • Commit to structured, forward-looking financial planning

Taking these steps before year-end can position you to move confidently into the new year and approach the coming changes with foresight.

At CapVal, we help business owners and investors translate planning into measurable outcomes—providing financial forecasting and business valuation services that support value-managed decision-making and long-term strategic confidence.  

We also collaborate with a network of trusted partners who bring additional expertise in tax planning and investment management—ensuring a comprehensive, forward-looking approach.